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Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica's content profile, based on 10 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Prompt Engineering Limitations: Preliminary Evaluation of Large Language Models for Psychotherapy Safety

Ngo, N.; Dao, G.; Sano, A.

2026-07-18 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.16.26358261 medRxiv
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Large Language Models are increasingly used in consumer-facing mental health tools, many of which claim that prompt engineering alone can ensure safe therapeutic behavior. This study evaluates that assumption by testing 20 proprietary and open-source LLMs on high-risk psychiatric scenarios, using prompts grounded in behavioral therapy principles. Prompt engineering reduced some predictable risks, such as explicit endorsement of self-harm, but consistently failed in ambiguous or clinically nuanced situations. Models frequently validated harmful statements, colluded with hallucinations, minimized symptoms, or used stigmatizing language, including in the newest and largest models. These failures reflect structural limitations such as lack of memory, insufficient contextual reasoning, and training-related biases. Prompt engineering alone is therefore insufficient for safe AI-mediated psychotherapy; clinician-guided fine-tuning, integrated safety mechanisms, and system-level oversight will be required. This work provides early evidence motivating deeper clinician-led evaluation and safety-oriented model development.

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Antidepressant Maintenance Versus Active Monitoring After Depression Remission: A Decision Analysis Stratified by Relapse Risk and Patient Preferences

Meyerson, W. U.; Cai, T.; Smoller, J. W.

2026-07-20 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.17.26358340 medRxiv
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Importance: Patients who achieve remission from major depressive disorder (MDD) often face a preference-sensitive decision between continued antidepressant maintenance and discontinuation with active monitoring. Quantifying the tradeoff between depression burden and long-term medication exposure may support more individualized shared decision-making. Objective: To quantify tradeoffs between continuous antidepressant maintenance and active monitoring after MDD remission, and to identify preference thresholds favoring each strategy across relapse-risk strata. Design: Individual-level decision-analytic health-state transition model calibrated to randomized maintenance-discontinuation trials and a longitudinal first depressive episode cohort, with a 5-year time horizon. Setting: Outpatient clinical decision after completion of an 8-month continuation phase following remission from MDD. Participants: Adults in remission from MDD, represented across 4 clinically anchored relapse-risk strata ranging from very low risk after a first mild episode to high risk after highly recurrent depression. Exposures: Continuous antidepressant maintenance vs discontinuation with active monitoring and antidepressant restart after detected relapse. Main Outcomes and Measures: Severity-weighted depression-months, antidepressant medication-years, medication-years per depression-month averted, and net benefit across preference thresholds defined as the maximum additional medication-years a patient would be willing to accept to avert 1 depression-month. Results: Continuous maintenance reduced depression burden but required substantially more medication exposure, with efficiency strongly dependent on relapse risk. Medication-years per depression-month averted ranged from 11.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.8-19.6) in the very low-risk group to 1.5 (95% UI, 0.8-3.0) in the high-risk group. At a preference threshold of 3 medication-years per depression-month averted, maintenance was preferred for moderate- and high-risk patients; at a threshold of 2, only for high-risk patients; and at a threshold of 1, for no risk group. Conclusions and Relevance: In this decision-analytic model, the value of continuous antidepressant maintenance depended strongly on baseline relapse risk and patient preferences regarding long-term medication exposure. These findings provide a quantitative framework for shared decision-making about antidepressant maintenance after remission from MDD.

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The Shape of a Final Message: An Emotional Landscape in the Language of Suicide

Pestian, J. P.; Jacobson, D. A.; Pedapati, E. V.; Mendonca, E. A.; McMahon, B. H.; Ive, J.; Glauser, T. A.

2026-07-17 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.16.26358230 medRxiv
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The emotional content of suicide notes is typically examined using categorical coding, where each labeled passage is treated in isolation from its surrounding language. In contrast, dimensional models of psychopathology propose that affective content varies along continuous gradients. We evaluated this proposition directly. Excerpts from 884 annotated suicide notes were embedded in a semantic space defined solely by their linguistic properties, and we investigated whether human-assigned emotion labels changed smoothly across this space. They did: affective tone showed clear spatial autocorrelation (Moran's $I = 0.18$, $z = 19.68$, $p < 0.001$), an effect that replicated across three different encoders and remained after removing all within-note dependencies. Emotions occupied recognizable yet overlapping regions rather than forming distinct clusters and varied substantially in how tightly they were concentrated: love and hopelessness appeared with similar frequency, but love was far more localized ($z = 15.7$ versus $10.8$). Among all emotions, hopelessness was the most linguistically diffuse, implying that a single categorical label is capturing multiple, qualitatively different manifestations of suicidal distress.

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Reconsidering the case against risk prediction in self-harm: routinely collected health data distinguishes groups at higher and lower risk of adverse outcomes following paracetamol overdose

Oxley, J.; Schölin, L.; Brennan, G.; Anand, A.; Brett, J.; Eddleston, M.; Humphries, C.

2026-07-17 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358127 medRxiv
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Background. UK clinical guidance recommends that structured risk prediction tools and risk stratification should not be used in self-harm, to predict suicide or determine who is offered treatment. Underpinning this position is the premise that routinely collected health data contain no useful predictive signal, which has received little direct scrutiny. Objective. To test whether routinely collected electronic health record data can distinguish groups at higher and lower risk of severe outcomes following paracetamol overdose. Methods. We analysed 4,095 adults presenting to NHS Lothian emergency departments with paracetamol overdose (2017-2023). Elastic-net logistic regression was fitted to 37 routinely collected electronic health record features to predict a composite of death or mental health inpatient admission at 0-7, 8-30 and 31-365 days following attendance, evaluated on a held-out 20% test set with bootstrapping. Findings. Events occurred in 5.5% of patients at 0-7 days, 2.0% at 8-30 days and 7.9% at 31-365 days, dominated by mental health admission. Bootstrap AUROC 95% confidence intervals lay above 0.5 in every window (0.65-0.82, 0.63-0.90, 0.71-0.85): models ranked patients better than chance. Calibration slopes (1.04, 1.14, 1.07) were close to one. Ranking drew primarily on mental health-related features. Conclusions. Routinely collected health data carried predictive signal for severe outcomes after paracetamol overdose, although discrimination fell short of what is needed for individual-level clinical use. Clinical implications. These models are not proposed for clinical deployment; however, treating risk prediction as a settled question will redirect research efforts, potentially excluding this patient population from machine learning advances driving improvements in care in other medical specialties.

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Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis: Do Youth-Reported Psychosis Symptoms Predict Later Mental Health Diagnosis?

Shah, J. N.; Ameis, S. H.; Donato, C. A.; Wei, I.; Dabagh, Y. A.; Cleverley, K.; Courtney, D. B.; Foussias, G.; Kozloff, N.; Voineskos, A. N.; Wang, W.; Dickie, E. W.

2026-07-15 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.13.26357957 medRxiv
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Objective Psychosis spectrum symptoms (PSS) are common among children and youth. These symptoms may be clinically significant as studies indicate a heightened risk of mental health disorders, in general, as well as psychotic disorders, specifically, in youth that endorse PSS. This systematic review and meta-analysis investigates the longitudinal association between PSS in children and youth and subsequent mental health diagnosis. Methods A comprehensive search of Ovid Medline, PsycINFO, and EMBASE databases was conducted to identify longitudinal studies that: (i) assess PSS at a baseline timepoint, (ii) in individuals under 25 years, and (iii) assess mental health disorder diagnosis using a structured assessment at a later time point in the same sample. We conducted a meta-analysis and calculated pooled odds ratios (ORs) for mental health and psychotic disorders using random-effects models. Post-hoc meta-regressions were performed to examine the influence of a number of moderators on the relationship between earlier recorded PSS and subsequent mental health disorders or psychotic disorders. Results The search yielded 41 eligible studies of which 25 were included in the meta-analysis. Most included studies assessed PSS using brief self-report measures and recruited their samples from clinical or community settings. Among children and youth without an identified mental health diagnosis at baseline assessment, baseline PSS were associated with a 2-fold (OR = 2.07, CI = 1.61 - 2.66, I2 = 86.92%, p < 0.0001) increased risk of meeting diagnostic criteria for subsequent mental health disorder diagnosis and a 3-fold increased risk (OR = 3.11, CI = 2.11 - 4.58, (I2 = 60.93%, p < 0.0090) of meeting diagnostic criteria for a subsequent psychotic disorder diagnosis with a minimum 1 year follow-up time from baseline assessment. Meta-regression analysis indicated that study quality and sample size explained a substantial proportion of between-study heterogeneity for psychotic disorder outcomes. Conclusions Our results suggest that administration of simple self-report measures of PSS in both clinical and community settings may be helpful to identify children and youth at higher risk of subsequently meeting criteria for a mental disorder generally, and for a severe mental illness (i.e., psychotic disorder), specifically. Future longitudinal studies should focus on improving study design characteristics to increase confidence in identified longitudinal associations. The results of our work suggests that integration of self-report measures of PSS may be useful in a variety of settings to identify youth at increased risk of subsequent mental illness.

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Trends and variations in Lithium usage across care settings in England between 2015-2024

Schiffer, H.; Fisher, L.; Curtis, H. J.; Wood, C.; Brown, A. D.; Bacon, S. C.; Croker, R.; Goldacre, B.; MacKenna, B.; Speed, V.; Macdonald, O.

2026-07-17 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26357641 medRxiv
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Lithium has been the gold standard for the treatment and prevention of relapse in bipolar disorder for over 60 years. Guidance from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence states explicitly to 'offer lithium as a first-line, long-term pharmacological treatment for bipolar disorder'. Yet, in the last two decades its use has been in decline with clinicians favouring anticonvulsants or antipsychotics when treating this condition. In this study, we have used three openly available datasets containing prescribing data from primary and secondary care to explore trends in the use of lithium in England, showing both regional and temporal variance between 2015-2024. We have shown that lithium use declined in primary care by 20.9% in the last ten years (2015-2024) and 10.9% overall in the last five years (2019 to 2025). We have also shown how there is some regional variation in the source of lithium for patients, although the vast majority is prescribed in primary care. Further research into clinical behaviour is needed to understand what is driving the decrease in lithium usage, and what barriers and enablers may influence its use across the country.

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Life-Stage Heterogeneity in the Mental Health Treatment Gap: An Unsupervised Machine Learning Profiling of Symptomatic US Adults

Forday, W. L.

2026-07-15 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.14.26358030 medRxiv
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Abstract Background Despite a rising global psychiatric burden, a treatment gap persists where the majority of symptomatic individuals remain unmedicated. Traditional epidemiological analyses treat this untreated population as a single, uniform block, obscuring specific barriers to care. This study uses an unsupervised machine learning pipeline to identify distinct socio-behavioural and biological sub-populations within the untreated cohort to guide targeted public health interventions. Methods Data were pooled from the 2015-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cycles (N=11,848 total adult respondents). A symptomatic cohort of 3,075 individuals experiencing daily or weekly anxiety or depression symptoms was isolated, excluding severe liver pathology outliers ("GGT"[&ge;]80" U/L" ). A 22-feature matrix combining continuous clinical biomarkers (systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, HbA1c) and categorical social variables was projected using Factor Analysis of Mixed Data (FAMD). Latent sub-populations were identified via Gaussian Mixture Modelling (GMM), optimized by the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Results The broad baseline population revealed a substantial mental health burden, with 30.4% reporting active psychiatric symptoms, of whom 71.6% were entirely unmedicated. The GMM pipeline successfully isolated three distinct sub-populations (k=3) separated by age, clinical strain, and treatment rates: Cluster 0 (Mature Adults, mean age 55.03): high psychiatric severity (34.1% severe untreated), central obesity, and hypertensive strain (135.82 mmHg), with 64.1% untreated despite frequent primary care contact; Cluster 1 (Working Professionals, mean age 38.38): highly educated, female-dominated (70.5%), with 77.7% untreated driven by moderate distress; Cluster 2 (Emerging Youth, mean age 18.49): a highly vulnerable late-adolescent group with a staggering 90.2% untreated rate. Conclusion The unmedicated symptomatic population is highly diverse and segmented by life stage. These profiles show that the treatment gap is driven by age-specific barriers, specifically workforce-age symptom masking and late-adolescent developmental transitions. Closing this deficit requires shifting from uniform public health approaches toward targeted interventions, such as digital peer support networks for youth and integrated primary care screenings for older adults.

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Exploring Psychological and Biological mediators between Childhood Adversity and Psychosis: An updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Kumar, G.; Lepreux, I.; Bici, L.; Mustafa, F.; Abella, M.; Trotta, G.; Aas, M.; Sideli, L.; MacCabe, J. H.; Twumasi, R.; Diederen, K.; Mechelli, A.; Rickard, M.; Carr, E.; Eromona, W.; Rossi, R.; Fares-Otero, N. E.; Hardy, A.; Alameda, L.

2026-07-21 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.19.26358426 medRxiv
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Background: Childhood adversity (CA) has been identified as one of the most robust risk factors for psychotic disorders; several treatable mediating mechanisms have been proposed. Aims: To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis examining mediating pathways linking CA and psychosis. Method: This PRISMA-compliant systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42024542972). consisted of a search conducted in January 2026 on Ovid (PsycINFO, Medline, and Embase) using search terms related to psychosis, CA, and mediation analyses. Evidence was appraised by calculating the percentage of the total effect mediated in each study, grouping mediators into meaningful groups. When possible, meta-analyses using two-stage meta-analytic structural equation modelling (METASEM) were conducted. Results: 117 studies were included (54 in clinical samples, 59 in non-clinical samples, and four studies in both clinical and non-clinical samples). 107 studies examined psychological mediators and 12 examined biological. The median percentages of total effect mediated across all analyses per mediator family were: 49% for dissociation (k = 24), 45% for psychosocial stressors (k = 6), 37.9% for negative schemas (k = 23), 35.2% for post-traumatic symptoms (k = 10), 31.5% for depressive symptoms (k = 14), 27.8% for anxiety (k = 11), 27.1% for attachment styles (k = 12), and 8.7% for mentalization domains (k = 5). Meta-analyses confirmed a robust mediating effect of dissociation (k = 7; N = 2143; indirect effect (I.E) =0.42 [0.17, 0.66] on psychosis; 50.49%), on delusions (k =7; N = 1053; I.E = 0.36, [0.27, 0.46]; 46.44%]) and on hallucinations (k =10; N = 5705; I.E = 0.28 [0.20, 0.36]; 57.59%). Robust mediation via depression (k =5; N= 5028; indirect effect= 0.33 [0.31, 0.35]; 31.05%) and negative schemas of the association between trauma and psychosis broadly defined (k = 7; N=10791; I.E= 0.26 [0.17, 0.35]; 26.36%) was also observed. High heterogeneity was observed across all meta-analyses. Fewer studies examined biological mediators, preventing quantitative synthesis. Conclusions: Childhood adversity impacts psychosis through psychosocial mediators, particularly dissociation. Further work is required to on the potential role of biological mechanisms and its interplay with psychological mechanisms.

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Suicide Attempt Risk in Autism: A National EHR Study of 2.3 Million Individuals

Baker, M.; Virtosu, M.; Lam, W. Y.; De Lacy, N.

2026-07-18 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358168 medRxiv
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Background: Suicide attempts (SA) are elevated in individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but population-level data characterizing how SA prevalence varies across demographic and clinical subgroups - at the scale and granularity needed to inform evidence-based risk stratification - have been largely unavailable. This study examines SA prevalence across sex, age group, psychiatric comorbidity type, and substance use disorder subtype in the largest real-world ASD cohort to date. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional analysis using Epic Cosmos electronic health record data from 2,311,171 individuals with ASD identified by International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) codes, spanning 2016-2025. SA prevalence was calculated with Wilson score 95% confidence intervals. Modified Poisson regression with robust variance estimation was used to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) for sex, age group, and psychiatric comorbidity. Unadjusted prevalence ratios (uPRs) were calculated separately for individual comorbidity types and substance use disorder subtypes. Results: Overall SA prevalence was 1.7% (38,160 individuals). Females showed higher SA prevalence than males (2.9% vs. 1.2%; aPR 1.61, 95% CI 1.35-1.92). SA prevalence peaked in the 15-24 age group overall (aPR 5.14, 95% CI 3.62-7.29), with sex-stratified analyses revealing that females peaked earlier (15-24 years; aPR 4.33, 95% CI 4.23-4.43) than males (25-34 years; aPR 6.08, 95% CI 5.05-7.31) - a sex-specific divergence in the timing of peak SA prevalence not previously documented in ASD. Having at least one psychiatric comorbidity was associated with a 30-fold higher SA prevalence (aPR 30.56, 95% CI 26.03-35.89), with the effect stronger in females (aPR 36.54, 95% CI 31.04-43.01) than males (aPR 27.77, 95% CI 22.65-34.06). Among comorbidity subtypes, substance-related disorders showed the highest crude SA prevalence (16.9%; uPR 134.20, 95% CI 67.68-266.10). Subtype-level characterization revealed SA prevalence ranging from 19.7% to 24.3% across all five substance use disorder subtypes examined, with stimulant use disorder showing the highest unadjusted prevalence ratio of any subtype (uPR 196.11, 95% CI 100.63-382.20). Conclusion: SA prevalence in ASD is markedly elevated relative to the general population and varies meaningfully by sex, age, and comorbidity profile in clinically important ways. Females carry a disproportionate SA burden relative to males, with peak vulnerability arriving earlier in adolescence; males peak later in young adulthood and remain at elevated risk into midlife. Psychiatric comorbidity - particularly substance use disorders - is associated with the largest relative elevations in SA prevalence. These population-level estimates are directly applicable to EHR-based risk stratification models and can inform the development of ASD-specific clinical decision support tools that concentrate surveillance and intervention on those at demonstrably elevated risk, rather than applying uniform approaches across a heterogeneous population.

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Context-dependent facial-expression patterns during affective film viewing in patients with bipolar depression

Lee, E.; Sim, S. H.; Park, C.; Kim, H.; Ahn, W.-Y.; Park, C. H. K.

2026-07-21 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.19.26358451 medRxiv
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Background: Emotion dysregulation is a core feature of bipolar disorder (BD), yet its behavioral expression during depressive episodes, and potential differences between its types, BD-I and BD-II, remain unclear. This study used automated facial-expression analysis during naturalistic affective film viewing to examine subtype-specific and context-dependent emotional responding in bipolar depression. Methods: The sample included 135 participants: 69 healthy controls and 66 patients with BD (BD-I, 23; BD-II, 43). Participants viewed nine emotionally evocative film clips spanning negative, positive, neutral, and socially threatening contexts, while their facial expressions were continuously recorded and quantified using computer vision-based facial-expression analysis. Results: Patients with BD-I showed a distinct, context-dependent facial-expression profile, characterized by greater negative responses across multiple contexts than other groups. Specifically, they showed increased sadness during sad, reward, and amusing clips, and elevated anger during sad and neutral clips. In socially threatening contexts, BD-I participants showed a multivalent pattern of elevated anger, fear, and joy, suggesting poorly coordinated or context-incongruent affective expression. In contrast, BD-II participants did not differ significantly from healthy controls on any emotion, despite depressive symptom severity comparable to BD-I participants. Conclusions: These findings suggest that facial-expression patterns in bipolar depression differ across subtypes. BD-I may be characterized by heightened negative reactivity and altered context-appropriate modulation of emotional expression, whereas BD-II may not show comparable alterations in overt facial output. Automated facial-expression analysis during naturalistic stimulation may provide a useful behavioral marker for characterizing subtype-specific affective disturbance in bipolar depression and related psychopathology.

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Diagnosing Others, Hiding Self: Shame and Non-Disclosure Among Autistic Psychiatrists - An Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis

Doherty, M.; Chown, N.; Martin, N.; Grosjean, B.; Chaplin, E.; Dolezal, L.; Shaw, S. C.

2026-07-15 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.13.26357917 medRxiv
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Autistic psychiatrists occupy a paradoxical position: trained to recognise and assess autism in others, yet navigating a professional culture in which their own autistic identity remains largely concealed. Despite growing visibility of autistic clinicians, the barriers autistic psychiatrists face to formal diagnosis and professional disclosure remain unexplored. This study used interpretive phenomenological analysis to examine the experiences of seven autistic psychiatrists in relation to diagnosis and disclosure. Data were generated through in-depth interviews and Retzinger's framework for identifying shame in discourse was applied as an analytical tool within the interpretive process. Shame emerged as the overarching theme across the dataset, operating through four group experiential themes. Its origins lay in childhood experiences of difference and perceived defectiveness, transmitted through family, peers, and the broader social environment. In professional life, shame was sustained and amplified by colleagues' misconceptions about autism, anticipated loss of credibility, and the deficit-based diagnostic criteria - which rendered self-recognition difficult and made formal diagnosis a perceived professional liability. Critically, shame did not only create barriers: it functioned as an override mechanism, rendering the known benefits of disclosure - to participants themselves, to colleagues, and to patients - insufficient to translate into action. This override function was not explained by fear of discrimination or rational career protection alone; it reflected shame's operation as an internal prohibition, dissociated from its original social source and persisting even where stigma had been intellectually processed and rejected. These findings reposition shame not as one barrier among many but as the organising force through which all barriers operate. Interventions aimed at increasing disclosure by raising awareness of its benefits misread the operative mechanism. Creating conditions in which autistic psychiatrists can make decisions about their identities freely requires naming and addressing shame - in research, in clinical training, and in the culture of psychiatry.

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Revisiting the link between childhood adversity and stress-sensitive brain regions in psychosis and bipolar disorder: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Petrova, T.; Tennifjord, A.; Cavero, D.; Holohan, A.; Kizilkaya, M.; Ebrahimian-Roodbari, A.; Lepreux, I.; Reimer, M.; Sideli, L.; Gadelrab, R.; Trotta, G.; Rodriguez, V.; Andreassen, O.; Klauser, P.; Alameda, L.; Aas, M.

2026-07-19 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.17.26358306 medRxiv
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Background Brain abnormalities related to childhood adversity (CA) have been reported across clinical presentations in psychotic disorder (PD) and bipolar disorder (BD). This systematic review and meta-analysis examined gray matter volume (GMV) alterations linked to CA in PD and BD. Methods A PRISMA-compliant systematic review was conducted (PROSPERO ID: CRD42022351133). The EMBASE, MEDLINE, and PsycINFO databases were searched from inception to June 2024 for studies investigating CA and structural brain imaging in PD and BD. Study quality was assessed with the Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS). Data were extracted and synthesized accounting for sex differences and CA subtypes with brain findings categorized by the presence and direction of associations. Meta-analyses were performed for hippocampal and amygdala volumes. Results In the systematic review (k = 29), 3,056 participants with PD and BD (mean age = 36.6; SD =16.1; 47% female), published between 2011 and 2023, were included. Study quality was fair, with high heterogeneity. Most studies reported significant negative associations between CA and GMV, especially in prefrontal regions, while findings for the hippocampus and amygdala were largely null or inconsistent. Meta-analyses of a study subset identified no significant association between CA and hemisphere-specific and combined volumes of the hippocampus (k = 5; p [&ge;] 8805; 0.66) or amygdala (k = 4; p [&ge;] 8805; 0.87). Conclusion CA was not consistently associated with hippocampal or amygdala volume alterations in PD and BD. More consistent evidence emerged for reduced GMV in prefrontal regions, suggesting that neurobiological impact of CA may be more robustly captured at the cortical level.

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Rest-Activity Rhythm Variability Across Clinical Episodes of Bipolar Disorder: Standalone Biomarker or Statistical Artifact?

Konicarova, C.-A.; Schneider, J.; Spaniel, F.; Kolenic, M.; Alda, M.; Bakstein, E.

2026-07-17 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358139 medRxiv
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Background: Actigraphy-derived rest-activity rhythm (RAR) features are widely used to characterize clinical states in bipolar disorder (BD). Both mean levels and temporal variability of these features have been associated with mood episodes; however, variability measures are often statistically coupled with the mean, particularly in skewed distributions. This raises a question as to whether variability reflects a separate characteristic of the data or whether the observed association arises from statistical properties of the data. Objective: In this study, we aim to determine whether temporal variability of actigraphy-derived RAR features provides standalone information on mood episodes in BD beyond mean activity levels after accounting for mean-variance dependence. Methods: We analyzed actigraphy data from a subset of 72 participants with BD drawn from a larger longitudinal study, extracting 22 daily RAR features aggregated weekly as sample mean (MEAN) and within-week temporal variability computed as sample standard deviation (VAR). Variance-stabilizing transformations (Box-Cox or Yeo-Johnson) were applied to the entire study cohort to reduce mean-variance dependence. Associations with mood episodes and remission (mania: n=34; depression: n=58 annotated participants) were evaluated using generalized linear mixed-effects models with a logistic link function, including univariate (MEAN or VAR) and multivariate (MEAN+VAR) specifications, assessed by likelihood-based metrics and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: Transformations reduced mean-absolute correlations from 0.43 to below 0.06. Temporal variability remained significantly associated with clinical state for 11/22 RAR features in mania and 16/22 features in depression, with all significant associations remaining after false discovery rate correction (p<0.05). Joint models showed modest incremental gains (AUC 3%-4% overall; up to 12% in mania, 7% in depression), with absolute performance remaining limited (AUC 0.50-0.66). In both mania and depression, nearly all significant variability-based regressors contributed incremental information beyond mean-based models. Only sleep duration and activity changes around wake time (+-1 hour), did not improve discrimination between mania and remission. Conclusions: Temporal variability in RAR features can be considered a standalone state marker of mood episodes not captured by mean activity. We found it to be more consistently associated with depression than mania. Its incremental discriminative contribution is modest, suggesting greater utility within multivariate or multimodal frameworks.

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A Culturally Embedded Augmented Reality Task as a Neurocognitive Biomarker of Executive Function in Schizophrenia

Chatthong, W.; Rueankam, M.; Khemthong, S.

2026-07-16 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.14.26358053 medRxiv
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Executive function (EF) deficits are central features of schizophrenia and strongly influence long-term functional outcomes. Conventional cognitive assessments often lack ecological validity and cultural relevance. This study introduces the Luk Chup Augmented Reality (LCAR) tool a video guided, clay modeling task delivered through wearable AR that integrates culturally familiar activity with realtime neurophysiological monitoring. Thirty individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia (mean age = 38.9, SD. = 7.15 years) completed a series of modeling and memory tasks using LCAR while undergoing quantitative EEG (QEEG). Task duration and theta/beta power were analyzed across procedural and color shape memory phases. Memory phases took significantly longer to complete and were associated with decreased lateral prefrontal theta and increased frontal midline theta activity (Fz, Cz), indicating higher EF demand. A repeated-measures ANOVA revealed significant condition, site, and interaction effects on theta power. The LCAR tool shows promise as a culturally grounded, dual-mode assessment of EF in schizophrenia. It offers a novel integration of performance-based and neurophysiological metrics that may inform future interventions in psychiatric rehabilitation.

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Immune disturbances cluster around specific depressive phenotypes under conditions of structural adversity

Hoffman, C.; Lourenco, F.; Wang, Y.-P.; Bivanco, D.; Monsenor, I.; Lima Santana, G.; Coelho, B.; Viana, M. C.; Castaldelli-Maia, J. M.; Araujo de Carvalho, L.; Andrade, L. H. S.

2026-07-16 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358135 medRxiv
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Background: Depression is clinically heterogeneous, and immune-metabolic disturbances may not map uniformly onto categorical diagnosis or symptom severity. In populations exposed to substantial structural adversity, it remains unclear whether inflammatory and metabolic biomarker differences reflect adversity exposure itself or cluster around specific depressive phenotypes. Methods: Data were drawn from the Sao Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey, a population-based study in which 5,037 household residents underwent structured psychiatric interviews. Among 770 participants assessed as having clinically significant symptoms (SCID-I), individuals with chronic physical illnesses, hs-CRP >20 mg/L, or missing data were excluded, yielding an analytic sample of 653. Latent class analysis of 16 DSM-IV depressive symptoms was used to identify symptom-derived phenotypes. Multinomial logistic regression tested associations between latent classes and immune-metabolic biomarkers, including hs-CRP, lipid fractions, fasting glucose, and triglycerides, adjusting for age, sex, education, smoking, and BMI. Results: A four-class solution identified asymptomatic (44.56%), mild-moderate (19.14%), atypical-like (16.69%), and melancholic-like (19.60%) classes. The two highseverity classes diverged by neurovegetative features: atypical-like depression was characterised by weight gain, hypersomnia, and psychomotor retardation, whereas melancholic-like depression was characterised by weight loss, insomnia, and psychomotor agitation. hs-CRP was highest in the atypical-like class and lowest in the melancholic-like class despite similar symptom severity. After BMI adjustment, elevated hs-CRP in the atypical-like class attenuated, whereas lower hs-CRP in the melancholic-like class persisted. Other metabolic markers did not robustly differentiate classes after adjustment. Conclusions: Immune-metabolic differences in depression do not simply follow symptom severity. In this Sao Paulo cohort, higher and lower hs-CRP profiles clustered around distinct latent depressive phenotypes, supporting biologically heterogeneous depressive presentations within a socially exposed urban population.

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Autism Research at a Crossroads: Global Progress, Persistent Gaps, and Future Pathways: A Bibliometric Analysis

zhong, Q.; Chen, L.; Ji, Y.; Zhu, F.; Zou, X.

2026-07-16 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.14.26358066 medRxiv
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Background The global prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has significantly increased over the past two decades. Despite substantial research advances, critical aspects, including etiology, diagnostic biomarkers, and pharmacological interventions, remain incompletely elucidated. This persistent knowledge gap warrants systematic mapping of the field's evolution to inform future research priorities. Methods A bibliometric analysis of ASD-related publications indexed in Web of Science was conducted from January 2020 to May 2025. Following a systematic deduplication process, original articles, reviews, case reports, and clinical trials were included in the analysis. The analytical framework comprised co-authorship networks, institutional collaboration patterns, national research contributions, and keyword co-occurrence structures, all of which were examined using CiteSpace (version 5.8.R3) and VOSviewer. Results After deduplication, 8,162 publications (January 2020-May 2025) were analyzed. The annual output grew steadily, confirming ASD as a sustained priority in neuroscience. Research remains academia-driven, led by the United States, with China as the second-largest contributor. Chinese institutions place greater emphasis on mechanistic and developmental phenotyping, which aligns with national priorities. These studies maintain strong methodological rigor, and their growing volume underscores the central role of ASD in translational neuroscience. Conclusion Future research on ASD should focus on strengthening case identification, refining clinical phenotyping, and expanding large-scale cohort studies to advance our understanding of its etiology and identify reliable diagnostic biomarkers. It is equally important to develop and evaluate targeted interventions for core symptoms and integrate telemedicine into service delivery models. A critical yet understudied priority is improving the quality of life for autistic individuals and their families, an area in which research globally, including in China, requires greater depth and consistency. With China's growing investment in autism research, it is well-positioned to contribute to these pressing international challenges.

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Suicide trends in Portugal from 2002-2023: a time-series analysis pondering data structure and fluctuations of undetermined intent and accidental deaths

Mesquita, E.; da Conceicao, V.; Gusmao, R.

2026-07-17 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.16.26358214 medRxiv
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Purpose: Suicide mortality is underestimated due to misclassification under undetermined and accidental deaths. This study examined national trends in suicide and related external causes of death in Portugal from 2002 to 2023, by sex and age group, assessing potential shifts suggesting masked suicide and quantifying the relationship between undetermined, suicide, and accident death rates through ratio indices. Methods: Using official mortality data from Portugal's Statistics Institute (INE) for 2002-2023, we calculated age-standardised (SDR) and age-specific death rates (ASDR) for suicide (X60-X84), undetermined intent deaths (Y10-Y34), and unintentional deaths (V01-X59), disaggregated by sex and four age groups (15-24, 25-44, 45-64, 65+). We estimated undetermined-to-suicide (UnD:Suic) and undetermined-to-accidents (UnD:Accs) rate ratios for SDRs and ASDRs. Trends were analysed using joinpoint regression (APC/AAPC) and structural breakpoint analysis (Chow test, BIC). Results: Suicide SDRs declined across the period for males (AAPC: -2.25%) and females (AAPC: -1.32%), with the sharpest reductions among males aged 25-44 (AAPC: -2.56%) and females aged 65+ (AAPC: -2.44%). Deaths of undetermined intent rose steeply from 2002 to 2005-2006 and declined thereafter. Unintentional deaths declined in most age groups, except females aged 65+ (AAPC: +1.41%). Both ratio series peaked around 2005-2009, declined progressively through the 2010s, and reached their lowest values in 2021-2022. Age-specific analyses revealed a significant and sustained increase in both ratios among females aged 45-64. Structural breakpoints clustered around 2004, 2013-2015, and 2019-2020. Conclusion: Suicide mortality declined in Portugal from 2002 to 2023, but divergent trends in undetermined and accidental deaths across sex and age subgroups highlight ongoing misclassification. Age- and sex-specific ratio analyses identify the population subgroups where misclassification is most concentrated, providing a foundation for future imputation-based estimates of probable suicide burden.

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Tomorrow's physicians in distress: prevalence, socioeconomic gradients, and modifiable determinants of mental health problems among 1,560 medical students in Southern Brazil - a multicentre cross-sectional study

Bacchi, G. N. V.; Furukawa, L. H.; Soares, A. B.; Turatti, A. P.; Horst, E. G.; Fillmann, G. P.; dos Santos, V. B.; de Leonco, A. R.; Karpovich, E.; Pereira, V.; Teles, M. V.; Reisdorfer, K. S.; Araujo, T. F. C.; Menezes, M.; Meneguetti, H.; Firpo, I.; Martins Costa Kessler da Silveira, M. I.; Tramontina, J. F.; Pacheco, J. P. G.; Alves, L. P. d. C.; Guidolin, B. L.; Tedesco, J. T.; Bittencourt, A. M. L.; Lapa, C. d. O.; Viola, T. W.; Pinto, L.; Braquehais, M. D.; Spanemberg, L.

2026-07-16 medical education 10.64898/2026.07.14.26357843 medRxiv
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Abstract Background: Medical students carry a disproportionate burden of mental health problems, but large multicentre studies from low- and middle-income countries remain scarce, and most evidence relies on single-institution samples and odds-ratio-based analyses that overstate associations for common outcomes. We provide a comprehensive epidemiological overview of mental health among medical students across an entire Brazilian state, quantifying the burden, its co-occurrence, and its socioeconomic and academic determinants. Methods: Cross-sectional online survey of 1,560 medical students covering all 20 medical schools in operation in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil (August-December 2023). Validated instruments assessed depressive and anxiety symptoms (PHQ-4), suicidal ideation (PHQ-9 item 9), non-suicidal self-injury, burnout (ESB-eu), quality of life (EUROHIS-QOL-8), spirituality (SSRS), substance use (ASSIST), prescription stimulant misuse, and mistreatment during training. Associations were estimated as adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) using modified Poisson regression with robust variance, with linear trend tests, prespecified interactions, sensitivity analyses and E-values. Results: Anxiety symptoms affected 64.5% (95% CI 62.1-66.9), depressive symptoms 45.5% (43.1-48.0), burnout 49.1% (46.7-51.6), recent suicidal ideation 20.6% (18.7-22.7), lifetime self-injury 13.1% (11.6- -4.9) and stimulant misuse 7.9%; 57.4% screened positive for >=2 outcomes. Quality of life declined monotonically with cumulative burden. Low family income showed inverse gradients across five outcomes (e.g., depression: PR 0.93 per income level, p = 0.002). Four factors were independently associated with nearly all outcomes: short sleep (<6 h; aPR up to 2.73), minority sexual orientation (aPR up to 2.02), family psychiatric history, and mistreatment during training (reported by 55.6%; aPR up to 1.49). Stimulant misuse tripled from the basic cycle to clerkship (aPR 2.30, 95% CI 1.36-3.88). There was no evidence of multiplicative interaction, indicating that the risk factors acted independently on the outcomes. Estimates were robust across sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: One in two medical students in this state-wide sample screened positive for at least two mental health problems. Socioeconomic vulnerability, sleep deprivation, mistreatment and minority status operate as independent and largely modifiable determinants - actionable targets for medical schools and policymakers.

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Ancestry-Calibrated Polygenic Risk Scores Predict PTSD Trajectories in Recent Trauma Survivors and Interact with Neighborhood Resources

Webb, E. K.; Jajoo, A.; Balakundi, V.; Sendi, M. S. E.; Koenen, K. C.; Linnstaedt, S. D.; House, S. L.; An, X.; Stevens, J. S.; Neylan, T. C.; Clifford, G. D.; Jovanovic, T.; Germine, L. T.; Rauch, S. L.; Haran, J. P.; Storrow, A. B.; Lewandowski, C.; Musey, P. I.; Hendry, P. L.; Sheikh, S.; Jones, C. W.; Punches, B. E.; Hudak, L. A.; Pascual, J. L.; Seamon, M. J.; Datner, E. M.; Pearson, C.; Merchant, R. C.; Domeier, R. M.; Rathlev, N. K.; O'Neil, B. J.; Sergot, P.; Sanchez, L. D.; Bruce, S. E.; Harte, S. E.; Kessler, R. C.; McLean, S. A.; Ressler, K. J.; Daskalakis, N. P.; Harnett, N. G.

2026-07-20 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.17.26358149 medRxiv
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Objective: Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) often account for a low amount of variance. Ancestry-related differences in PRS scale and variance limit cross-group comparisons. This methodological challenge further complicates gene-by-environment (GxE) analyses, given that socioenvironmental exposures are inequitably distributed across ethnoracial groups. We constructed an ancestry-calibrated polygenic risk score (AC-PRS) for PTSD in the largest longitudinal study of trauma survivors to date and investigated GxE interactions. Method: Recent trauma survivors (N=1,801) provided a blood specimen for genotyping. Six PTSD trajectories were previously identified from PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5) scores at 2-weeks, 8-weeks, 3-months, and 6-months post-trauma. Greenspace (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI) and socioeconomic disadvantage (area deprivation index [ADI]) were derived from residential addresses. Logistic regressions examined interactions between newly developed AC-PRS and neighborhood factors on trajectories after adjusting for sociodemographic and trauma-related covariates. Secondary linear models considered GxE interactions on 6-month PCL-5 scores. Results: AC-PRS performed well across ethnoracial groups, explaining significant variability in PTSD trajectories (R2=.053). ADI moderated the association between AC-PRS and the likelihood of assignment in a high nonremitting trajectory of PTSD symptoms and severity of symptoms at 6-months (ps < .05). There were no NDVI x AC-PRS interactions in any models. Conclusions: AC-PRS captures genetic risk for PTSD in admixed trauma survivors, demonstrating good discrimination between nonremitting and resilient courses of PTSD. However, neighborhood disadvantage may modify utility of PRS for PTSD, warranting careful consideration when applying these scores across contexts.

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Are CNV Risk Scores Linked to Neurodevelopmental and Mental Health Characteristics Within CNV-Associated Intellectual Disability?

Chi, Z.; Alexander-Bloch, A.; Neufeld, S. A.; Wolstencroft, J.; Skuse, D.; IMAGINE-ID consortium, ; Baker, K.

2026-07-16 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.14.26358034 medRxiv
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Background: Children and young people (CYP) with intellectual disability (ID) frequently have co-occurring neurodevelopmental (ND) and mental health (MH) difficulties. While copy number variants (CNVs) are identified as an important aetiology of ID, it is unclear whether and how CNV risk scores predict ND and MH characteristics within the CNV-associated ID population. Methods: We analysed data from the UK-based IMAGINE-ID cohort of CYP (aged 4-19 years) with ID and clinically-reported CNVs (N = 1,640). CNVs were annotated with Gencode 19 in ENSEMBL to calculate CNV risk scores, including summed probability of loss-of-function intolerance (pLI) and dosage sensitivity. Multivariate regression models examined the prediction of CNV variables and inheritance on ND and MH characteristics, assessed via the Development and Well-Being Assessment (DAWBA). Post-hoc analyses explored CNV variable stratification (lower vs. higher range pLI). Results: Higher summed pLI scores (indexing CNV genes' intolerance to loss of function) unexpectedly predicted fewer MH difficulties and a lower likelihood of ND diagnoses, even after accounting for demographic factors and CNV inheritance. Post-hoc analyses identified a threshold effect. Within the lower pLI range, higher pLI scores were associated with greater MH difficulties, consistent with findings from population-based samples. In contrast, within the higher pLI range, higher pLI scores were associated with fewer MH difficulties (among individuals more likely to have severe ID). Conclusion: These findings challenge the assumption that CNV genomic "risk scores" universally predict ND and MH difficulties. Instead, within CNV-associated ID, complex relationships exist between CNV risk scores, inheritance and phenotypes. These insights emphasise the necessity of integrating genomic results with familial and developmental context to understand individual vulnerabilities and support needs.